Monday, April 27, 2009

Demographics & Depression

If this pastor gig doesn't work out, my backup plan is to move back to Virginia and pursue graduate studies in economics at George Mason University. With economics suddenly becoming a very timely and interesting subject, I listen avidly to the EconTalk and Planet Money podcasts. I've thus heard any number of theories and explanations for the present financial unpleasantness, but none so idiosyncratic or compelling as this from David P. Goldman (until recently, the pseudonymous "Spengler" of the Asia Times):

"Credit markets derive from the cycle of human life. Young people need to borrow capital to start families and businesses; old people need to earn income on the capital they have saved. We invest our retirement savings in the formation of new households. All the armamentarium of modern capital markets boils down to investing in a new generation so that they will provide for us when we are old." He goes on to argue that the demographic decline of young two-parent families in Europe and America has resulted in a concomitant decline of credit markets which, in turn, can only be reversed by an increase in young families.

You can read "Demographics & Depression" in its entirety in the May 2009 issue of First Things, available on better newsstands everywhere.

(Are there any newsstands outside of Manhattan and downtown Chicago anymore?)

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